Home Price Growth May Be Picking Up Again: Here's What It Means for Buyers and Sellers

Over the past year, we've heard plenty of headlines suggesting that the U.S. housing market has cooled and home price growth has slowed. Some even interpreted that as a sign that home prices were about to fall—or that the market was headed for a major correction.

But the latest data tells a different story.

According to Keeping Current Matters (July 29, 2026), national home price appreciation may have already reached its low point and could begin accelerating again during the second half of the year.

Slower Price Growth Doesn't Mean Home Prices Fell

This is one of the biggest misconceptions in today's housing market.

Home price appreciation slowed from around 7% in mid-2024 to much lower levels over the past year.

That does not mean home prices declined.

It simply means prices continued to rise—but at a slower pace.

For example:

• If a home increased 5% last year and 2% this year, the appreciation rate slowed.

• However, the home's value still increased.

Understanding the difference between slower appreciation and falling home prices is essential when interpreting housing market news.

Fewer Housing Markets Are Seeing Price Declines

One of the most encouraging trends is the shrinking number of markets experiencing price decreases.

Among the nation's 300 largest housing markets, approximately:

• 36% experienced year-over-year price declines in the middle of last year.

• Today, that number has dropped to roughly 23%.

In other words, fewer markets are losing value, while more markets are returning to positive price growth.

Most economists currently project that U.S. home prices will increase approximately 2.3% nationwide in 2026.

If those forecasts prove accurate, price appreciation will likely strengthen during the second half of the year.

While it's too early to declare a long-term acceleration based on only a few months of data, the current trend doesn't support expectations of a nationwide housing crash.

The Midwest Deserves Special Attention

National averages rarely tell the full story.

Real estate is always local.

Markets with abundant new construction—such as parts of Florida and Texas—face different conditions than areas where inventory remains limited, like many Chicago suburbs.

According to Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, regional differences remain significant. Markets supported by strong job growth, rising incomes, and relatively affordable home prices—including portions of the Midwest—are beginning to show stronger home price momentum.

The Chicago area is no exception.

Demand remains strong for homes that offer:

• Excellent school districts

• Convenient commuter access

• Well-maintained properties

• Desirable neighborhoods

Meanwhile, overpriced homes or properties needing significant repairs may continue sitting on the market longer.

That's why broad statements like "it's a buyer's market" or "home prices are rising everywhere" rarely tell the whole story.

Even within the same city, market conditions vary by neighborhood, price range, and property type.

What This Means for Buyers

Over the past year, slower price appreciation gave buyers more opportunities to negotiate pricing and terms.

If appreciation begins accelerating again in your target neighborhood, waiting may not necessarily improve affordability.

If home prices rise while mortgage rates remain relatively stable, buyers who delay could face both:

• Higher purchase prices

• Similar borrowing costs

That doesn't mean buyers should rush into purchasing just any home.

Instead, today's market rewards buyers who:

• Evaluate local inventory carefully

• Negotiate when competition is limited

• Move decisively when a well-priced home becomes available

  
  

Good News for Sellers—But Pricing Still Matters

A strengthening price trend is certainly encouraging for homeowners.

According to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors®, the typical homeowner is expected to gain approximately $16,000 in home equity this year.

However, rising national prices don't justify overpricing your home.

Today's buyers remain highly price-conscious and compare listings more carefully than they did during the pandemic housing boom.

Homes that enter the market with realistic pricing continue to perform well.

Homes priced above market value often require price reductions and longer marketing times.

Even in an appreciating market, proper pricing remains one of the most important factors for a successful sale.

Bottom Line

Home price appreciation slowed significantly over the past year—but recent data suggests it may be beginning to accelerate again.

For buyers, waiting indefinitely for a dramatic price correction may not be the best strategy.

For sellers, rising prices are encouraging, but competitive pricing and thoughtful preparation remain essential.

Most importantly, don't base your decisions solely on national headlines.

The housing market is local.

If you're planning to buy or sell a home in Chicago or the surrounding suburbs, understanding what's happening in your neighborhood is far more valuable than following national averages.

I'd be happy to help you analyze local market conditions, recent sales, and current competition so you can make informed decisions with confidence.